Q and A: Why is the Google AdWords Traffic Estimator so far off?

Dear Kalena...

I put a Google AdWords campaign together a few days ago and I admit, I have not used AdWords in a while. Not much at all this year in fact and I know they made some major changes to the program this past Summer.

I am using mostly 3 and 4 word keywords which are not that competitive. I use 3 versions of each keyword, the regular version (my keyword), the version with quotes ("my keyword") and the version with brackets ( [my keyword] ).

But my ads are not showing up anywhere near in position compared to what the traffic estimator shows. For example, the traffic estimator shows the average position to be 1.2 for a certain 4 word keyword, but when I go to test it, that keyword actually comes up number 71. I mean I don't expect the estimator to show me exactly where the ad will show up, but it should at least be closer than that! Either the estimator is completely useless or I am not understanding something about it.

Thanks
Frank

Kalena's Answer:

Dear Frank

A couple of things:

1) Why on earth are you using all 3 keyword matching types for a single keyword phrase? You should only be using a single match-type for each keyword.

For example, if your keyword phrase was shiny red widgets then you can use exact phrase matching by using brackets e.g. [shiny red widgets] , in which case ONLY persons who type in those 3 words alone will see your ad; or you can target the phrase match by using quotes "shiny red widgets", in which case persons whose search queries INCLUDE those 3 words in the exact order will see your ad; or you can target with broad match, by not using any brackets or quotes - shiny red widgets - in which case persons whose search queries INCLUDE those 3 words IN ANY ORDER and possibly combined with other words will see your ad.

These three keyword matching types cancel each other out so if you are using all three, you are essentially competing with yourself and lowering your Click Through Rate (CTR). More information on Keyword Matching options can be found here.

2) The AdWords Traffic Estimator is just that - an estimate. The actual position of your keyword phrase is dependent upon a large range of factors and the estimator gives you an idea of where your ad may be positioned assuming a high CTR and your current bid. Estimator values may contain decimals because the Traffic Estimator displays estimates as averages-not whole numbers-based on dynamic keyword activity among advertisers. Also, average ad positions are not fixed; they may vary depending on bidding activity, your keyword's quality and CTR.

Also, if your AdGroups contain instances of double or triple keyword serving (as yours do), the traffic estimator does not exclude these duplicate instances, but instead presents traffic estimates based on all potential traffic. More information on the Traffic Estimator can be found here.